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The Crypto Bubble Is Popping — Part I

Prices don’t lie and, from experience, bitcoin doesn’t usually stay this stable for such long periods of time. At the moment of writing, bitcoin is still below the USD $7000 levels; nonetheless, if we take into account the contrarian rule for investing, as well as the dynamics of volume and volatility when aligned to a spike in general people’s interest, we may be able to predict a significant rise in bitcoin’s price within the next few months.

You don’t need to take my word for granted, just look at the current market volatility.

 

I understand it’s your money that is at stake and the market has been quite bearish. But it’s also mine and everyone else’s who decided to change from fiat-currency to cryptocurrency. To most people you know, bitcoin is an investment vehicle; maybe a bit more worrying, is the fact that the focus is not even bitcoin anymore, it’s mostly altcoins. Where else we could we get those massive gains (bruh)?

Yet, greed comes at a cost.

I love new ideas, new projects, new ways of thinking and innovation in general. I also love the concept of decentralizing trust and money and the super-power/super-responsibility that comes with it. Obviously, the debate is considerably more interesting when the total marketcap of (insert top-10 project name) is worth billions.

At some point we need to stop and ask ourselves, how happy are we with the actual progress of the cryptocurrency space? So many companies have surged, yet where is real change? Is there a bubble or is the market undervalued? Is price aligned with technology development and adoption, in any way?

What about the million dollar question:

Can we still go to the moon?

 

 

–this article shouldn’t be taken as financial advisement as it represents my personal opinion and views. I have savings invested in cryptocurrency so take whatever I write with a grain of salt. Do not invest what you cannot afford to lose and always read as much as possible about a project before investing–

For one, I have absolutely no idea if we can still make epic gains; plus I really couldn’t care less.

Don’t take me wrong, I hope the market turns bullish and we do see a massive bull-run, breaking the Bitcoin below USD 7000 trend. I hope all projects deliver upon their promises. My desire is that everything works out just fine, and everyone who invested takes home some profits.

Interestingly enough, despite the current negative sentiment, there’s tons of bullish news coming from left and right.

“New institutional players like Fidelity and Bakkt are coming into the market!” 

“The cryptocurrency seasonality is about to strike!”

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=47QgXE2XpGU

 

The problem is, of course, reality works a little bit differently.

For one, consider you’re an institution competing with (let’s say) coinbase; would you rather invest in the same market as your competitor, or would you bet on newly developed cryptocurrencies, not owned by coinbase?

Plus, we need to take into account the average investor mindset, usually focused in short-term gains, moons and lambos.

What I see are many clearly overvalued projects, a definite lack of research on actual proven concepts and too much money wasted on marketing campaigns, ads, advisers, ICO trackers and paid promotional content, instead of focusing on actual product development.

“Yeah but In order to make money, you need to spend money!”

Right, but does it make sense most projects put the financial burden on investors and not founders? Where is the actual risk sitting at?

Who’s money is at stake?

Honestly, just like you guys, I do want to make tons of money, get rich and don’t have to worry about anything else for the rest of my days, focusing only in doing what I love.

However, there are many paths to achieve that goal. You don’t need 100 BTC to start a decentralizing (whatever business) platform with economic incentives. Or at least you shouldn’t. One of the things that drives my passion towards cryptocurrency is what’s about to come: when people with an actual need for the technology start participating, hordes at a time.

Sure, our gains are important.

But there’s something way bigger coming, that will change the entire panorama.

No, I’m not talking about institutional investors.

Imagine when those 33% unbanked people around the world realize they can simply download an app and get paid in a currency accepted everywhere. The true beauty of Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies remains to be its decentralized, permissionless and transparent nature.

http://uk.businessinsider.com/the-worlds-unbanked-population-in-6-charts-2017-8

 

However, in order for that to happen, we might need to put greed aside for a second and think of better ways to redistribute money. If you don’t see how that is important for your personal gain, let me clarify.

Think of what happens when you include 2.3 billion people on the financial system.

Unimaginable, isn’t it?

I cannot conceptualize the impact on our daily lives, but from a financial standpoint, this is what I see: 2.3 billion more customers for every business, potentially. By including people who did not have a chance to participate in the world economy, you can now reach new customers everywhere; because the means of exchanging are borderless and permissionless, no one can be blocked from exchanging value and services.

The digitization of the world, via mobile smart-phones with internet access, will change how we do business. Forever.

https://3.bp.blogspot.com/_DlJyFTh4bjU/TRvCDCe1rCI/AAAAAAAAJr0/xqJiIR0WYy0/s1600/mobile.jpg

 

For example, in African or Latin American countries you might know it’s near impossible to take money out, due to the many currency-related restrictions imposed by central banks.

Since 2009 you can simply hop over that problem by transacting in cryptocurrency.

It might not be easy but with the right set of tools, motivation and people, we could see new specialized crypto-related businesses flourishing through developing countries.

Next week we’ll discuss how crypto might not be the bubble we imagine, but instead the solution to the world’s economy.

Thank you for reading!

Don’t forget to leave a like and to share it with your network! Part 2 will come out next week.

Follow me on Medium @Pedro Febrero Jr.

Follow me on Twitter @febrocas 

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